CORVIX Signal
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- How risky the market is right now, across seven regions
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- Which parts of the market are setting up best right now
There are a thousand things moving in the market and no time to watch them. CORVIX reads them for you and answers two questions: how risky is it right now, and what does that mean for what you own. Every number shows its working, so you can check it rather than trust it.
Informational only. Not investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
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To read the market properly you first have to learn what a piece of data is, then what it does, then how it moves an asset class. The hard part comes when ten of those things move at once and you have to work out the combined result. Starting from zero, that's overwhelming, and it only gets worse when you try to track every asset in a portfolio and calculate the total impact.
That's why I built CORVIX. Not something only institutions can read, but something a normal person can use to make sense of the numbers and reach conclusions faster, with more certainty. Markets move fast and leave little room for retail money. CORVIX is built to help close that gap.
Time is. And so is knowing what any of it means for the portfolio you actually hold.
The St. Louis Fed alone publishes 845,000 economic series from 126 sources. Nobody reads that — and more of it doesn't reliably help. When researchers varied how many fund choices retirement savers were shown, the least knowledgeable stopped choosing at all: 20% fell back to the default, against 2% of the most knowledgeable.
Reacting to the noise is expensive. Across 66,465 households at a US discount broker, the most active traders earned 11.4% a year while the market returned 17.9%. Meanwhile the thing that quietly decides the result is the mix you hold: about 90% of the variation in a portfolio's return over time traces to its allocation policy, not to individual picks.
So CORVIX answers those two questions and stops there: how risky is it right now, and what does that mean for what you own. It doesn't pick stocks for you, and it doesn't promise a return.
CORVIX gives you a clear read on how risky the market is right now, which long-term ideas are working, and what both mean for what you hold — with the reasoning shown, not hidden.
One headline says a crash is coming, the next says buy the dip. Your brokerage app shows you a red number and nothing else. So you make the call on a feeling, then spend the next month wondering if you got it wrong. Finding opinions was never the hard part. Knowing which ones to trust with your retirement is.
Every client wants to know what it means for them specifically, and they want it now. You're pulling numbers from three places and half remembering a fund house PDF from last month. Then compliance asks you to show your reasoning. Doing that for one client is fine. Doing it across a whole book, every time, is the part nobody warns you about.
You defend your positioning to people whose job is to find the hole in it. If something moved and you can't name the signal that drove it, that isn't a data problem, it's a credibility problem. Most tools hand you a score and keep the arithmetic to themselves. That works right up until the quarter it doesn't, and it's your name on the memo.
Four tools for the conversations you actually have in a meeting — showing a client the worst drawdown they'd have sat through, what they own across every provider, what a policy really returned after charges, and whether their plan funds every year of their life.
CORVIX scores 17 long-run themes against seven checks, refreshes them on a schedule, and shows the reasoning behind every number instead of handing you an output to trust.
The seven are weighted and combined into a single score from 0 to 100. No one input can carry the result by itself.
Every theme ships with a plain-English condition that would prove the thesis wrong, reviewed on a quarterly cycle. A theme that hits its falsify condition moves down a band. This is what stops a stale conviction from just sitting there unquestioned.
Every backtest uses only the data that would have been available at that point in time, no look-ahead. Transaction costs are applied on turnover. Toggle the signal overlay on or off to isolate what the signal itself actually contributed to risk-adjusted return.
Read the full methodology, including what CORVIX does not do →
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